Today I Learned
Japan Autumn Leaves 2026: Forecast Dates & Where to Check
Compare Japan's published 2026 autumn foliage forecasts, Tokyo and Kyoto dates, and official updates. Forecasts, normal timing and live reports explained.
Japan’s 2026 autumn foliage forecasts are out, but there is no single national peak date. Weathernews’ October 8 outlook places Arashiyama in Kyoto in its viewing season from late November onward. The Japan Meteorological Corporation’s October 1 city forecast puts Tokyo’s maple coloring date around November 28. Those are different kinds of forecast, and neither guarantees the best day at a particular garden.
Forecast update checked: October 9, 2026. Weathernews’ national and regional outlooks below were issued on October 8. JMC’s and tenki.jp’s October 1 editions were rechecked on October 9; the JMA and Kyoto City checks remain dated September 24. For a visit coming up soon, select your destination on the Weathernews foliage map or JMC’s official forecast and spot links, and check its latest update.
Which 2026 forecasts have been published?
| Publisher | Latest edition verified | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) | Second 2026 forecast, issued October 1, 2026 | Separate maple and ginkgo dates based on city observation trees. |
| Weathernews | Updated 2026 outlook, issued October 8, 2026 | Regional viewing outlooks, with reports from places where the season has already begun or ended. |
| Japan Weather Association / tenki.jp | First 2026 forecast, issued October 1, 2026 | Viewing-start forecasts for named foliage locations, with many places near-normal or later than normal. |
JMC, the Japan Weather Association, and the government Japan Meteorological Agency are separate organizations. A result headed “autumn forecast” may belong to a different publisher or year.
JMC’s October 1 release schedules its next update for early November. That is a planned publication window, not a forecast we have already checked.
Weathernews’ October 8 outlook by region
The regional updates contain both forecasts and reports from places where the season is already under way. The table below contains forecasts across destinations within each region, checked October 9. A regional season spans many elevations and locations; it does not describe how long one garden stays at peak.
| Region and source | Forecast across later destinations |
|---|---|
| Hokkaido | Through early November |
| Tohoku | Through late November |
| Hokuriku | Through late November |
| Kanto and Koshin | Through mid-December |
| Tokai | Mid-October–mid-December |
| Kinki (Kyoto and Osaka) | Mid-October–mid-December |
| Chugoku and Shikoku | Early October–early December |
| Kyushu | Early November–mid-December |
Kanto and Koshin cover Tokyo’s wider region, Nagano and Yamanashi. Their shared end date does not establish when a particular mountain or central Tokyo garden will be at peak.
Conditions reported on October 8
- Hokkaido: The season had already ended around Asahidake’s Sugatami Pond, while Shiretoko Pass was at its viewing season. This does not mean autumn had ended across Hokkaido. Northern Japan report
- Tohoku: The middle slopes of Yamagata Zao had reached their viewing season. Northern Japan report
- Hokuriku: Murododaira had reached its viewing season. Eastern Japan report
- Kanto and Koshin: Karasawa in the Kamikochi area had reached its viewing season. This mountain report does not describe every part of Kamikochi or central Tokyo. Eastern Japan report
These are dated reports, not a live condition check. Reopen your exact destination’s latest report before travelling.
Tokyo, Kyoto and other cities: forecast versus normal
The following four-city selection is from JMC’s October 1, 2026 release. Its dates use the JMA observation-tree criterion: the first day most leaves on the tree have changed color. They are not a citywide peak-viewing appointment. The normal column is the historical reference listed by JMC, not a second 2026 prediction.
| City | 2026 maple forecast | Normal maple date listed by JMC | 2026 ginkgo forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sapporo | November 4 | October 28 | November 3 |
| Tokyo | November 28 | November 28 | November 26 |
| Kyoto | December 11 | December 5 | November 27 |
| Osaka | December 4 | December 1 | November 24 |
Source: JMC’s forecast tables and method. Reopen the source before using these dates: the page can be updated with a later edition.
Why does Kyoto show both late November and December 11?
Weathernews’ October 8 outlook specifically names Arashiyama among lowland destinations expected to reach their viewing season from late November onward. Its viewing-period definition runs from roughly 70% of a spot being colored until leaf fall begins. Its normal start dates use observations from 2004–2025. Weathernews’ definitions.
The JMC table above concerns a different target and definition. A city observation-tree date cannot establish when every temple’s maples will look best. Nor can you reliably convert it into a temple date by subtracting one or two weeks.
For Kyoto, use a named location’s report before fixing the day of your visit. A maple forecast also does not tell you when a particular ginkgo avenue will turn yellow.
Normal timing and past observations are not forecasts
The JMA maple-coloring map describes 1991–2020 climate normals. It shows the broad seasonal progression from northern Japan toward the south, with much of Kinki and southern Kyushu reaching the observation-tree threshold in early to mid-December. It does not predict 2026 park conditions.
JMA also publishes actual observed dates. On September 24, its page had separate 2025 and 2026 columns. For example, Kyoto’s December 10, 2025 observation belongs to last year; it is not a December 10 forecast for this year. An empty 2026 entry means no date is recorded there yet, not that the whole surrounding region is green.
This distinction matters when a search result mixes “normal,” “forecast,” and “observed” dates in the same table.
Where to check before your visit
- Choose the exact spot. Use the Weathernews foliage map or the spot links in JMC’s official release. Match the name and elevation to your itinerary, not just the nearest city.
- Check the year and update date. Kyoto’s official Autumn Leaves Calendar was still headed 2025, last updated December 12, 2025, when we checked on September 24, 2026. It is useful historical context; wait for a clearly dated 2026 update before treating its color icons as current conditions. Apply the same year check to tenki.jp.
- Check the venue and access separately. Confirm opening hours, any timed admission, transport operation, and road or trail notices on the venue or operator’s official site. A foliage prediction does not confirm that a light-up event is running or that a mountain route is open.
On Japanese pages, 見頃 means the viewing period, 色づき始め means coloring has started, and 落葉 means leaf fall. A recent condition report is more useful for tomorrow’s outing than a national forecast issued weeks earlier.
How to use this for a 2026 trip
Treat late November and early December as dates to investigate for a Tokyo–Kyoto foliage trip, then compare specific locations against the forecasts above. If your dates fall outside that window, use the regional table to look for alternatives rather than assuming the whole country will be too early or too late.
Our planning recommendation is to keep a few alternative gardens or day trips on your list and choose among them using recent reports. Do not shift every booking a week later simply because a national headline says “late.” The publishers use different targets and baselines, and their outlooks do not establish a uniform seven-day delay.
Compare transport costs for the itinerary you actually choose; our JR Pass guide explains the decision. For the broader cultural calendar around autumn, see Japan’s seasonal calendar.