Today I Learned
Japan Autumn Leaves 2026: Forecast Dates & Where to Check
Compare Japan's published 2026 autumn foliage forecasts, Tokyo and Kyoto dates, and official updates. Forecasts, normal timing and live reports explained.
Japan’s 2026 autumn foliage forecasts are out, but there is no single national peak date. Weathernews’ October 29 outlook forecasts the start of Arashiyama’s viewing period around November 23. JMC’s October 1 release puts Tokyo’s maple coloring date around November 28. The two forecasts use different targets and definitions; neither guarantees the best day at a particular garden.
New forecast release checked: October 30, 2026. Weathernews updated its national and regional outlooks on October 29. Its latest reports move the viewing areas toward lower elevations. The regional summary below uses that release; tenki.jp’s October 28 third outlook retains its October 29 check. JMC’s city-table check remains October 9, and the JMA and Kyoto City checks remain September 24. Before travelling, reopen your exact destination’s latest report.
Which 2026 forecasts have been published?
| Publisher | Latest edition verified | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) | Second 2026 forecast, issued October 1, 2026 | Separate maple and ginkgo dates based on city observation trees. |
| Weathernews | Updated national and regional outlooks, issued October 29, 2026 | Viewing-period forecasts and dated reports for named destinations. |
| Japan Weather Association / tenki.jp | Third 2026 forecast, issued October 28, 2026 | Viewing-start forecasts for named spots; lowland coloring is progressing gradually, with warmer November conditions expected to slow the pace. |
JMC, the Japan Weather Association, and the government Japan Meteorological Agency are separate organizations. A result headed “autumn forecast” may belong to a different publisher or year.
JMC’s October 1 release schedules its next update for early November. That is a planned publication window, not a forecast we have already checked.
Weathernews’ October 29 outlook by region
The table summarizes the October 29 regional releases, checked October 30. These periods span different locations and elevations. They do not describe how long one garden stays at peak, and a region’s end date does not guarantee every destination will still have leaves.
| Region and source | Outlook across destinations |
|---|---|
| Hokkaido | In the latter part of its season; viewing areas have moved to lowlands |
| Tohoku | Through mid-November |
| Hokuriku | Through late November |
| Kanto and Koshin | Through mid-December |
| Tokai | Through mid-December |
| Kinki (Kyoto and Osaka) | Through early December |
| Chugoku and Shikoku | Through early December |
| Kyushu | Through early December |
Kanto and Koshin cover Tokyo’s wider region, Nagano and Yamanashi. A shared regional end date does not establish a peak date for central Tokyo or a particular mountain.
Conditions reported on October 29
- Hokkaido: Onuma Park had reached its viewing season; the season had ended at Shiretoko Goko and Lake Akan Onsen. Northern Japan report
- Tohoku: Naruko Gorge had reached its viewing season. Northern Japan report
- Hokuriku: The Lake Okutadami sightseeing-boat area had reached its viewing season. Eastern Japan report
- Kanto and Koshin: The Kappa Bridge area of Kamikochi had reached its viewing season, while coloring had started on Mount Takao. These are separate places from the earlier Karasawa report. Eastern Japan report
- Kinki: Leaf fall had begun at Odaigahara, while Mount Gomadan had reached its viewing season. Western Japan report
- Kyushu: Coloring was developing at Unzen’s Nita Pass and had begun at Kyusuikei. Western Japan report
These are Weathernews’ dated reports, not our own observations or a live condition check. Confirm the exact destination again before travelling.
Tokyo, Kyoto and other cities: forecast versus normal
The following four-city selection is from JMC’s October 1, 2026 release. Its dates use the JMA observation-tree criterion: the first day most leaves on the tree have changed color. They are not a citywide peak-viewing appointment. The normal column is the historical reference listed by JMC, not a second 2026 prediction.
| City | 2026 maple forecast | Normal maple date listed by JMC | 2026 ginkgo forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sapporo | November 4 | October 28 | November 3 |
| Tokyo | November 28 | November 28 | November 26 |
| Kyoto | December 11 | December 5 | November 27 |
| Osaka | December 4 | December 1 | November 24 |
Source: JMC’s forecast tables and method. Reopen the source before using these dates: the page can be updated with a later edition.
Why does Kyoto show November 23 and December 11?
Weathernews’ October 29 outlook predicts Arashiyama’s viewing period starting around November 23. Its period begins when roughly 70% of a spot is colored and ends when leaf fall begins; its normal start dates use 2004–2025 observations. Weathernews’ latest outlook and definitions.
The JMC table above concerns a different target and definition. A city observation-tree date cannot establish when every temple’s maples will look best. Nor can you reliably convert it into a temple date by subtracting one or two weeks.
For Kyoto, use a named location’s report before fixing the day of your visit. A maple forecast also does not tell you when a particular ginkgo avenue will turn yellow.
Normal timing and past observations are not forecasts
The JMA maple-coloring map describes 1991–2020 climate normals. It shows the broad seasonal progression from northern Japan toward the south, with much of Kinki and southern Kyushu reaching the observation-tree threshold in early to mid-December. It does not predict 2026 park conditions.
JMA also publishes actual observed dates. On September 24, its page had separate 2025 and 2026 columns. For example, Kyoto’s December 10, 2025 observation belongs to last year; it is not a December 10 forecast for this year. An empty 2026 entry means no date is recorded there yet, not that the whole surrounding region is green.
This distinction matters when a search result mixes “normal,” “forecast,” and “observed” dates in the same table.
Where to check before your visit
- Choose the exact spot. Use the Weathernews foliage map or the spot links in JMC’s official release. Match the name and elevation to your itinerary, not just the nearest city.
- Check the year and update date. Kyoto’s official Autumn Leaves Calendar was still headed 2025, last updated December 12, 2025, when we checked on September 24, 2026. It is useful historical context; wait for a clearly dated 2026 update before treating its color icons as current conditions. Apply the same year check to tenki.jp.
- Check the venue and access separately. Confirm opening hours, any timed admission, transport operation, and road or trail notices on the venue or operator’s official site. A foliage prediction does not confirm that a light-up event is running or that a mountain route is open.
On Japanese pages, 見頃 means the viewing period, 色づき始め means coloring has started, and 落葉 means leaf fall. A recent condition report is more useful for tomorrow’s outing than a national forecast issued weeks earlier.
How to use this for a 2026 trip
Treat late November and early December as dates to investigate for a Tokyo–Kyoto foliage trip, then compare specific locations against the forecasts above. If your dates fall outside that window, use the regional table to look for alternatives rather than assuming the whole country will be too early or too late.
Our planning recommendation is to keep a few alternative gardens or day trips on your list and choose among them using recent reports. Do not shift every booking a week later simply because a national headline says “late.” The publishers use different targets and baselines, and their outlooks do not establish a uniform seven-day delay.
Compare transport costs for the itinerary you actually choose; our JR Pass guide explains the decision. For the broader cultural calendar around autumn, see Japan’s seasonal calendar.